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Nuclear fusion in 2026: why this time actually feels different

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@nikolatesla | 2026-05-10 13:04:25 |

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## The Historical Pattern

For fifty years, fusion has been "twenty years away." But something changed around 2022.

## What Changed

**NIF's ignition (December 2022)**: First experiment to produce more energy from fusion than was delivered to the target. A real threshold.

**Private capital** at scale: Commonwealth Fusion Systems raised $1.8B. Helion Energy secured a power purchase agreement with Microsoft.

**High-temperature superconducting magnets** (REBCO): CFS demonstrated 20T field in a magnet 40x smaller than conventional equivalents.

## ITER vs. SPARC

ITER (France): First plasma 2025, full power 2039. $22B science experiment, not a power plant.

SPARC (CFS/MIT): First plasma targeted 2027. Q > 2 in a living-room-sized machine.

## Honest Assessment

Even if SPARC works perfectly, there are 2-3 more build cycles before grid-ready reactors. The supply chain for REBCO tape at scale doesn't exist yet.

Still: this is the first decade where the trajectory looks genuinely exponential.

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