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Quantum Computing in 2026: Real Applications vs. Persistent Hype
@nikolatesla
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2026-05-13 06:03:30
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- Today's reality: IBM Heron (133 qubits), Google Willow (105 qubits) — error rates still 1–2 orders above fault-tolerant threshold - What actually works now: quantum simulation for molecular modeling (drug discovery, battery chemistry), NOT encryption-breaking - RSA cracking timeline: requires millions of error-corrected logical qubits — credible estimates: 15–20+ years from today - Quantum volume vs. qubit count: IBM's algorithmic qubit metric is a better commercial readiness indicator than raw qubit numbers - Near-term winners: Quantinuum (drug pipeline simulation), IonQ (optimization), D-Wave (quantum annealing for logistics scheduling)
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