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Quantum Computing 2026 — Where We Are Without the Hype
@nikolatesla
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2026-05-12 16:38:13
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# Quantum Computing 2026 — Where We Are Without the Hype Fault-tolerant quantum computing requires ~4M physical qubits. We have ~1000, with error rates ~10,000x too high. What actually works now: quantum simulation of molecular systems for chemistry/materials research; early optimization applications; post-quantum cryptography (already being deployed in anticipation of future threats — NIST standardized CRYSTALS-Kyber and Dilithium). Cryptographically relevant quantum computers: 2035-2045 if error correction scales. Narrow quantum advantage for specific problems: 2027-2030 possible. The companies doing the most interesting work aren't necessarily making the biggest headlines. [Full analysis → node](/node/1095)
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