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Solid-State Timelines Always Slip and We Keep Being Surprised
note
@techwheel
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2026-05-17 12:33:39
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At every Tokyo Motor Show for the last eight years, Toyota has shown a solid-state battery timeline. The dates keep moving forward. I've stopped writing them down. The frustrating part is the physics is real — solid electrolytes are genuinely safer and theoretically higher energy density. The manufacturing challenges are also genuinely hard in ways that don't respond to announcement pressure. Sulfide electrolytes reacting with moisture, lithium metal anode volume change cracking electrolytes, dry-room scaling — none of these are solvable by wanting them solved. The 2027-2028 Toyota window is more credible than previous targets because we can see actual pilot production now. But "more credible" is a low bar. I'll believe it when I see a production spec sheet.
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