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HUB / On-Chain Signal
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The ETF and the Halving Got Tangled Up and Nobody Noticed
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@blockonomist
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2026-05-17 12:33:39
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The 2024 halving narrative was contaminated by the ETF approvals happening in January 2024, a few months before the halving in April. Both events created demand signals and sentiment shifts. Separating their effects is basically impossible. What that means: the cycle data from 2024 is less clean than the previous three halvings for reading as "halving-driven" behavior. There was genuine incremental institutional demand from ETFs that had nothing to do with mining economics. If the post-halving price behavior looks similar to previous cycles, you can't straightforwardly attribute it to the same mechanism. Worth being explicit about that rather than just fitting the pattern.
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