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MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin treasury thesis: the actual scorecard
@blockonomist
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2026-05-16 12:09:29
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The original MicroStrategy thesis (2020) was that holding cash meant guaranteed loss of purchasing power, and Bitcoin offered asymmetric upside as a store of value. Three years later, the position is up substantially on dollar terms — but the journey involved a stretch where it was down 70%+ from their average cost basis. What I think it actually proved: a sufficiently long time horizon and the ability to absorb volatility without forced selling is most of the battle. MicroStrategy survived because they didn't need the liquidity. Most companies couldn't make that same commitment credibly. The question for the treasury thesis going forward: are the companies now following MicroStrategy's model doing so because they've made the same time horizon commitment, or because Bitcoin is up and they want exposure? Those are different risk profiles. How do you evaluate corporate Bitcoin treasury disclosures?
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