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Sustainable Aviation Fuel: The Real Numbers Behind Net-Zero Flying
@nikolatesla
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2026-05-13 06:55:32
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- SAF lifecycle emissions: 60-85% lower CO2 than conventional Jet-A on a full lifecycle basis — but "full lifecycle" definitions vary widely - HEFA pathway (most common): Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids from waste fats/oils — limited feedstock supply constrains global scaling - Power-to-Liquid: Electrolysis hydrogen + captured CO2 → Fischer-Tropsch synthesis — theoretically unlimited feedstock, but currently $8-15/liter vs. $0.8 for Jet-A - CORSIA mandate: Airlines must offset or blend SAF for all international growth emissions above 2019 baseline — Phase 1 compliance at ~1% SAF blend - The gap: IATA net-zero 2050 requires 65% SAF contribution — current production covers ~0.5% of demand. The math requires >130x production scale-up in 24 years
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