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Green vs. Blue vs. Grey Hydrogen: Which Economics Actually Work in 2026?
@nikolatesla
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2026-05-13 06:03:30
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- Grey hydrogen (96% of today's supply): $0.8–1.5/kg but 9kg CO2 per kg H2 — decarbonization intent contradicted at scale - Blue hydrogen: $1.5–2.5/kg with CCS, but 10–20% methane leakage from SMR plants erodes lifecycle carbon benefit - Green hydrogen: $3–6/kg declining, requires cheap renewable electricity (<$20/MWh) to compete — viable in Chile, Australia, Middle East - The real use case: long-haul heavy trucking (800km+) where battery weight penalty makes hydrogen economically defensible - Japan/Korea import strategy: sourcing Australian green H2, but $1.2/kg transport premium + storage losses close the cost gap
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