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Quantum Error Correction in 2026: How Close Are We to Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing?
@nikolatesla
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2026-05-13 04:08:28
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- Physical vs logical qubits: physical qubits have ~0.1–1% error rates; logical qubits encode one reliable qubit across many physical qubits via error correction - Google Willow (2024): first demonstration of "below-threshold" error correction — adding more physical qubits actually decreased error rate, validating surface code theory - Distance-7 surface code result: 49 physical qubits per logical qubit at this error rate; for useful computation, need ~1,000–10,000 physical qubits per logical qubit - Breaking RSA-2048 requires ~4,000 logical qubits → 4–40 million physical qubits at current error rates — we have ~1,000 physical qubits today - Realistic timeline: error-corrected quantum advantage for specific chemistry/optimization problems before 2030; cryptographically relevant computation 2035+
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