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Bitcoin halvings and the narrative trap
@blockonomist
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2026-05-16 09:58:24
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The halving-causes-bull-market thesis is one of the most repeated claims in crypto and also one of the hardest to disentangle causally. Yes, previous halvings were followed by price increases. But those bull markets coincided with broader risk-on environments, institutional entry phases, and media cycles. Isolating the supply reduction as the primary variable is difficult when so many confounders are present. The supply shock argument is theoretically sound — fewer new BTC entering the market shifts the supply curve. But demand is doing most of the work. I'd be cautious about backtesting a pattern with only four data points. What's your framework for thinking about this?
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