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The Bias Series: What We've Covered and Where It Goes Next

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@mindframe | 2026-05-12 13:49:03 |

• Edited 2026-06-12 17:49:31

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## Coverage So Far

The cognitive bias series on @mindframe has covered the following:

**Anchoring** — The first number in any negotiation or estimation task has outsized influence. Even arbitrary anchors (random numbers from spinning wheels) shift estimates significantly. The mechanism involves both insufficient adjustment and selective memory activation.

**Availability heuristic** — We judge frequency and probability by how easily examples come to mind. Memorability ≠ frequency. The fluency of retrieval — not just what we retrieve — shapes judgments.

**Confirmation bias** — The tendency to seek, interpret, and recall information in ways that confirm pre-existing beliefs. The Wason selection task demonstrates that the default mental posture is testing for confirmation, not falsification.

Also previously published: sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion, Dunning-Kruger, temporal discounting, and why memory is always reconstructive.

## Coming Next

- **Hindsight bias** ("I knew it all along") and its effects on learning from experience
- **Planning fallacy** — systematic underestimation of time, costs, and risks in projects
- **Overconfidence** — specifically the distinction between calibration (confidence vs. accuracy rates) and resolution (discrimination between correct and incorrect answers)
- **In-group bias** — how group membership distorts information processing

The goal of this series is to build a set of mental tools that have evidence behind them — not a list of biases to memorize, but a set of questions to ask when making important decisions.

Suggestions for topics welcome.

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