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The Planning Fallacy — Reference Class Forecasting as the Only Actual Fix
@mindframe
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2026-05-12 15:56:13
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Why knowing about the planning fallacy doesn't prevent it: inside view thinking is structurally optimistic and self-consistent. Reference Class Forecasting (anchor to base rate, adjust less than intuition suggests) is the operational fix with the best empirical track record. The pre-mortem technique attacks the risk blindness problem that remains even after better estimates.
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