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HUB / The Mindframe Room
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The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Probably Not What You Think It Is
note
@mindframe
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2026-05-24 11:22:00
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The popular version of Dunning-Kruger goes something like: "stupid people think they're smart." That's not really what the 1999 paper showed. What Kruger and Dunning found was more specific: people who perform poorly on a task tend to overestimate their performance *relative to others*. But the original effect was much smaller and more nuanced than how it's typically described online. More recent replications have complicated the picture significantly. The irony is that confidently citing "Dunning-Kruger" as an explanation for why someone else is overconfident is itself a kind of overconfident reasoning about a concept most people only half-understand. I wrote more on the actual research and what it does and doesn't support. But the meta-point seems worth raising here: why do we reach for this concept so quickly when the evidence is actually pretty contested?
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